Brace Yourselves: Everything Will Get More Expensive Again

There are objective factors driving IT price increases: inflation, credit rates (which haven't decreased despite the Central Bank rate cuts), rising employee insurance contributions, and VAT. All of this together will ensure IT services and infrastructure become more expensive.

Additionally, there's a subjective sense that IT has substantial capital and resembles a new oil industry. However, money is currently scarce. The hypothesis suggests that companies will first be reclassified under benefits, then shifted to standard taxation, and finally face increased tax burdens.

I possess extensive experience as a Russian citizen and have already registered with the hosting registry, which initially imposed no obligations but now carries significant costs and complications. I sense that the removal of certain IT company benefits has already begun.

The General Situation

The Central Bank recently cut its key rate by 2%. Yet counterintuitively, server leasing rates increased by half a percent for the latest purchases. Working with major operators, our company takes equipment on 18-month installment plans. When the Central Bank rate rose, their rates rose too. Now that rates are falling, their rates remain unchanged at 35% and have slightly increased. Responses from financial institutions are deflating: "That's just how our internal rates work."

Banks present an even more troubling scenario. With a major state bank's credit line, when rates climbed, they immediately sent supplementary agreements raising our rate. When rates began declining, inquiries about rate adjustments received this response: "We have the right, but no obligation to recalculate. We won't exercise that right now."

This expensive capital paralysis has completely frozen the anticipated mergers and acquisitions market. Deals proceed underground and require 3-4 months just to obtain preliminary agreements, with complete transactions taking a year. Larger purchasers, also needing expensive credit, approach smaller companies stating acquisition intent at minimal valuations. Smaller firms respond: "Why? We have solid metrics. Let's wait; rates are decreasing." Everyone waits, and the market stagnates.

Memory Matters

Server prices increased 5-15% this year. DDR5 saw 5% increases; DDR4 experienced 15% increases!

Memory drove price increases substantially. DDR4 approximately tripled in cost since June.

Manufacturers, including Samsung, decided to cease DDR4 production, transitioning to DDR5. However, the market wasn't prepared — DDR5 requires new motherboards, and upgrading infrastructure wasn't prioritized. Consequently, severe shortages emerged, making DDR4 pricing spectacular.

Logistics Nightmares

Current logistics represent genuine chaos. Recent example: two servers traveling from China to Armenia were turned back, likely due to documentation errors. Returning these two servers to Russia, reformatting paperwork, and reshipping cost approximately 700 thousand rubles.

For two units!

Why so expensive? Servers travel via maritime containers, aircraft, and rail in bulk shipments. Distributed customs across multiple units becomes economical. However, bringing two servers incurs full placement costs as though transporting enormous quantities. Naturally, suppliers absorbed massive losses, and these expenses transfer to all customers.

Such situations intensify, necessitating either large-scale shipments or accepting trans-country complications. Logistics consolidates around major operators or becomes substantially pricier.

Taxation

Previous-year tax reforms already elevated prices 10-15%. This year continues:

• VAT increases from 20% to 22%.
• New simplified tax (USN) regulations force suppliers earning 60+ million rubles to remit VAT without deduction rights — dead weight on pricing.
• Insurance contributions for registered IT companies double: from 7.6% to 15%.

Cumulative tax effects add approximately 5% to final pricing.

However, the critical factor involves the new data-center registry. Initially intended for electricity subsidies, suspicion suggests it represents institutionalized levy collection. Data-center summits reported projections of "20-25% service increases." The logic: electricity tariffs spike across the board; registered facilities receive rates preventing closure.

In other words, consumers reduce unnecessary lighting while data centers receive benefit-driven pricing stability. This represents strategic repositioning. Resource revenue declined; the state seeks replacements. IT remains the sole consistently expanding sector. Eventually, all benefits will disappear, and the industry will face extraction equivalent to historical oil sector treatment.

Artificial Intelligence: Market Fracturing

Hyperscalers — Yandex, Sber, VK — can finance billion-ruble AI platform investments. Everyone else cannot. The problem: genuine market demand from Russian businesses for complex, expensive AI tools remains absent. Russia hesitates between engagement and withdrawal. Tools already exist; identifying buyers remains unclear.

If enthusiasm doesn't materialize, Yandex absorbs ordinary losses. Hypothetically, raising taxi rates by thirty kopecks recovers investments within years. Smaller companies gambling infrastructure investments on AI miscalculations face potential fatality. Consequently, our company avoids large-scale participation. Excessive hype characterizes these ventures.

Summary

Thirty-five percent credit rates, persistent data-center shortages (construction remains unprofitable relative to bank deposits), 15% hardware increases, new taxation, 25% electricity rate hikes, and recruitment crises — from 200 candidates, two qualify. Notably, IT specialist compensation stagnated for years, effectively declining with inflation.

Result: projections anticipate 10-15% price increases. Choices appear straightforward: economize through used equipment or elevate pricing. Our company refuses quality compromises or shrinkflation tactics. Preparation proceeds.

Regarding our company: January brings approximately 5% increases. Advance, longer-term payments receive discounts: 20% for annual commitments plus discounts; 10% for semi-annual plus discounts. Extended multi-year payments at stabilized rates remain available. Payments represent period commitments, not balance additions — pricing adjustments preserve duration.